Will Tesla deliver over 100k cars in Q2?

By @Ellec on Wed, 19th of June, 2019 at 09:06AM ET

So what's the real deal when it comes to Tesla's Q2 production and deliveries? We have bulls and bears both presenting their case along with Tesla's own guidance.

Horses mouth
So lets start with the company itself, the guidance stated in the Q1 letter was an over 90k cars delivered with a chance to go over the 100k milestone.
With the recently announced product improvements on Model S and Model X, as well as continued expansion of Model 3 globally, we expect our order rate to continue to increase throughout the year as our production levels increase. We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2. Although it is possible to deliver a higher number of vehicles, we believe it is important to begin unwinding the "wave" approach to vehicle deliveries, where overseas cars have been made in the first half of the quarter and North American cars have been made in the second half. This puts extreme stress on Tesla, negatively affects our working capital needs and adds to our cost structure.
In addition Elon has stated in both the Q1 conference call and in leaked emails they can hit and exceed that target. At the shareholders conference Elon went a step further and stated the EV company could produce a record quarter on every level.

Crowd sourcing
There are few better estimators than Troy Teslike @TroyTeslike , he's a Tesla Motors Forum user who setup a spreadsheet to track various metrics from real Tesla customers. His estimates have been pretty accurate and his last tweet suggested around 85,187 cars delivered.

One of the original crowd sourced estimators was Bloomberg's Model 3 tracker which has been retired. However it was showing Tesla moving towards 850 Model 3's a day in average. The original author of that, Tom Randall, has since moved it to track other data-sets.

Now it’s time to move on to tracking the next phase in Tesla’s evolution. As the company proved its ability to crank out Model 3s, investors have turned to different metrics of success. Tesla shares have been in a tailspin in recent weeks on doubts about consumer demand for the Model 3—and electric vehicles writ large. Tesla needs to prove it can mass produce cars with the quality, reliability, innovation and service to keep attracting new customers as traditional automakers add more electric options.

One of the most vocals bulls is Gali [@Gfilche] also knows as "Let's go to You Tube" guy, affects Elon Musk took his question on the Q1 2018 Conference call (After hanging up on a few Wall Street Analysts). The HyperChange CEO post his high energy and informative videos on his You Tube channel

On this video predicts over 90k deliveries for Q2 based on various pieces of evidence.

Bear a.k.a. Business Insider
If you follow Tesla in the media you will quickly become aware that there are some media outlets that only publish the most negative articles about the company. Though there are many, the King of these are Business Insider, if you do some research you will understand why.

Their latest hit piece suggests Tesla is missing it targets based on a leaked document (Which is nowhere to be seen). But boils down to talking about a particular segment of the production line which hasn't hit the 1000 a day target for Model 3 production.

The article presents no evidence and talks in vague terms using the work segment without explaining it. This is par for the course for Business Insider so a ton of sodium should be nearby when reading it.

Ultimately no one knows the actual numbers except Tesla and with 11 days of the quarter left triple digit deliveries are within reach if Tesla pushes hard next week.